28-02-05 Worldwide tight supply of crude oil and price crisis in 2004 have aroused concern in Chinese society for how much crude oil supply China will need and import in 2020 if it wants to sustain the economic development and operation of a well-off society.
To estimate market demand for oil, experts have first of all figured out the elasticity coefficient (EC) for annual crude oil consumption in China since 1990 and the average elasticity coefficient for crude oil consumption, as the following table:

BEIJING, July 4 Asia Pulse - China's crude oil supply and oil refinery throughput are both expected to rise over the next three months.

The average monthly output is estimated at about 15 million tons and the throughput in oil refineries will be kept at about 24 million tons a month, which means a fall due to the high base figure for last year.

China's net import of crude oil will remain high in the period, estimated to average more than 10 million tons a month, which means a rise over the same period of last year but would represent a fall on the high base figure for 2004.

Finished oil output will increase, but the range of growth will fall drastically, due to the high level of international oil prices.

China’s dependence on imported oil is a factor in rising world oil prices. From 1999 to 2003, China’s dependence on imported oil doubled to 80 million tons per year. Since oil is a significant strategic resource, China’s dependence on imports for one third of its oil consumption is very serious. Chen Huai, a researcher at the Research and Development Center of State Department, suggested that along with an increase in the amount of imported oil, China should also establish a strategic petroleum reserve for China’s national energy safety. According to a 2001 Chinese energy report, China only has a seven-day strategic oil reserve, and plans to increase it to 30 days in 2005.

China imports oil from the Middle East, Africa and Southeast Asia having to transport 90 percent of its oil through the Malacca Strait. According to estimates, nearly 60 percent of ships going through the Malacca Strait each day are Chinese. Of the ships importing oil to China, 90 percent are domestic ships. The Strait is 1,080 kilometers in length and is under the joint control of Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia. The issue of safety along this oil supply line is very crucial for the Chinese government.