myshtern

I just got this email from my buddy Josh. He is a Phd student at Tufts in counterterrorism and middle eastern affairs, so he knows his ----. He's been in Israel for the last month interviewing people for his dissertation and this came up.

Hello from Israel.

This is going to be my last response to the listserv for at least a few weeks, so as not to get an ulcer or heart failure from all the emails flying around these days. Feel free to write my separately if you so desire, with any questions, comments, hellos, etc. My apologies therefore if this email's a bit lengthy, but I've read so many queries as well as accusations, and incorrect biased remarks that I feel the need to respond more seriously. I also highly recommend reading PM Ehud Olmert's speech. I think he put it quite eloquently (at least in Hebrew), and it is worth the read. I pasted it to the bottom of this email.

For the first time since the 1991 Gulf War, residents as far south as Tel Aviv have been warned to be prepared to take shelter in case of incoming rockets and missiles (*see below). Even where I am residing in "Ramat Gan," people cleared out the bunkers in the apartment building, and we all have our escape routes in case sirens do sound. Unlike in 1991 however, the rockets being fired are too small and travel too short a distance to allow the Israeli authorities in many cases enough time to even sound warning sirens. These longer range rockets though can carry over 100 kgs of
explosives though, making them deadlier than the rocket attacks Israel has absorbed in the past. Hence the 8 innocent people killed in Haifa yesterday. Just today hundreds more missiles and rockets were fired into Israel, and
another apartment building in Haifa took a direct hit, practically destroying the entire building. There was no warning. Residents didn’t even have a chance to take shelter. This morning a suicide bomber was also caught in Jerusalem on his way to commit a suicide bombing. Don't know if that made it to CNN, but it's kept people in Israel even more jittery.

I wanted to address a few points that some people seem to have been raising. I don't claim to be the authority on this matter, or to be the sole representative of how people in Israel are feeling, but having spent my summer conducting interviews with the people who conducted the withdrawals from Lebanon and Gaza, and some who still remain in power, and having dual citizenship and living here for a while, and having spoken to a LOT of people both on the Israeli left (who up until now thought I was too hawkish) and the Israeli right (who up until now thought I was a sissy dreamer), I think I've gotten a pretty good perspective at least from the Israeli side of things.

First of all, I want to talk about deterrence. To study Israeli history is to understand that deterrence a critical tool in this tiny nation's arsenal. Contrary to what many people have claimed Israel has not always responded when attacked, and does not try to target innocent civilians, though it has made many mistakes in the past. However, we must keep in mind that it is very very very difficult not to hit innocent civilians when fighting guerilla militias, insurgents and outright
terrorists such as Hezbollah, who quite purposefully operate out of civilian areas. That's the part that really gets me about this. Hezbollah very clearly operates out of civilian-heavy areas, and its fighters are often seemingly innocent workers during the day and warriors at night, making the distinction between civilian and combatant even more difficult. Their offices and infrastructure are often times for example on the fifth floor or a 10 story residential apartment building, in the midst of a heavily populated city or suburb.

As I see it, this tidal wave of international condemnation by many members of the international (and even more so the Fletcher) community only helps encourage the continuation of these tactics. It's high time we lay the blame on Hezbollah for all this crap. Israel has arguably the fourth most powerful military in the world, arguably the best air force in the world (pound for pound that is), and pretty much the best technology in the world (sorry Martin, that's not just because of the US either, as much as I'd like us to take the credit, the Israelis have a huge arms exports field and is arguably #1 in technological advances today, including not just weapons, but water conservation, biomedical research, solar technology, etc.).

If Israel wanted to target and kill innocent Lebanese civilians, trust me when I say it could do so a lot better than it has done so far. That's not to make light of the innocents killed thus far, but we have to keep in perspective the tactics and type of warfare Israel is up against, both in Gaza and Lebanon. And unlike the United States in Iraq, which some (especially in the western media) have made comparisons to, Israel was attacked first from a country that allows a terrorist organization to operate literally inches from its border. When the US went into Iraq there was doubt as to the legitimacy of its attack, in the case of Israel's attack on Lebanon, the reasoning is clear: self defense.

Insurgencies, guerilla warfare and acts of terrorism, are especially effective against Western democratic nations, who are sensitive to civilian casualties (Israel being a case in point). As many of you already know, this is better known as the "democratic dilemma." That's why countries such as Syria don’t face the type of terrorism that Israel does today. When they face threats, they simply use their force against anyone and everyone in order to crush any resistance. That's for example what they did in Hama, Syria to deal with the Muslim Brotherhood. Strangely, there were no international condemnations at the time. Not one peep from the UN. That's the double standard people in Israel always are amazed by. (*see quote below, or look at the Russians in Chechnya, the Chinese all over China and especially Tibet, the Jordanians and Black September, etc.).

REGARDING DETERRENCE, Israel has slowly allowed its deterrent capabilities to erode over the years in the hopes of reaching peace agreements, helping allies, and trying to keep the region relatively calm. Examples include:

In 1991 Israel was attacked by a myriad of missiles from Iraq even though it had no part whatsoever in the Gulf War. The US urged Israel not to respond and it didn't. This hurt Israel's credibility tremendously not only in the eyes of its own citizens who sat in home made "chemical weapons proof" rooms with gas masks (I have a great shot of my Holocaust survivor grandparents sitting in a room waiting for the all clear to sound with bottled water and a bucket for a toilet), but more importantly, it hurt Israel's deterrence credibility in the Arab world and the greater region. That was time #1, and the first time in Israeli history that it was attacked and did not retaliate in any way whatsoever.

The second time was when Israel pulled out of southern Lebanon in 2000, after its occupation of a security zone that Israel maintained 12 km deep into Lebanese territory (I may be mistaken on the exact # of kms). The reason it chose 12 KM was because at the time, the PLO then operating in Lebanon had rockets that were being fired against Israeli towns in the north, and the IDF strategists thought that if it could pull back to just 12 KM of Lebanese territory, it could prevent the north of the country from being shelled. However, unlike in the West Bank or Gaza Strip, no Israeli politician or even citizen really ever had any intention of remaining there or settling the area permanently. No settlements were ever built, and Israel was aligned with the Maronite Christian community. Israel was strictly there as a security zone for the protection of Israeli citizens. Over time, the PLO fled, Syria came in, Lebanon was in the midst of a civil war, and
Hezbollah (and its predecessor "Amal") filled the vacuum and continued the "resistance" against the IDF. While Israeli casualties caused by Hezbollah certainly played a role in having the IDF withdraw, the main reasons it withdrew was because most Israelis came to the conclusion that since Hezbollah now had rockets that had a range much farther than 12 km, and since Israel was losing about 20 soldiers a year on average in Lebanon, and since Israel never planned on remaining there in the first place, it should finally move back to the internationally recognized border and take up defensive positions where it could defend itself not only in a more conventional manner, but do so more legally and morally.

The hope of course, was that as a sovereign state, the Lebanese government would send its military to take over the southern Lebanese positions, however no effort was ever made to do so because the argument was that Syria was in control. Therefore, instead Hezbollah took the areas over, and during this time it amassed an incredible arsenal of weaponry namely from Iran, via Syria. At the same time, Hezbollah sent fighters to Iran to train in more advanced strategies and technologies, while Iran sent agents to the Israeli border to assist Hezbollah.

After the Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon in 2000, Hezbollah went from having a few dozen (to possibly a few hundred) relatively short-ranged low-explosive Russian made Katyushah rockets, to gaining approximately 6000-10000 (depending on which Hezbollah or IDF official you are listening to) rockets and missiles, with ranges that can reach at least Afula (that's a pretty major city south of Haifa that was just hit a bit ago). During this time, Israel did NOTHING to prevent it, for fear of starting up another crisis.

Hezbollah used the pretext of the Shaaba Farms (also known as "Rajar") area to claim that it was Lebanese territory that still needed to be returned to Lebanon, but regardless of whether or not this was true (it's not by the
way, at least according to the UN, the EU, Israel and the US, land that Israel controls and is a matter for Syria to negotiate with Israel not Lebanon), what is known for sure is that it was just an excuse to remain armed, in complete violation of UNSC 1559. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah himself stated on more than one occasion that if Israel would hand over the Shaaba farms, Hezbollah resistance would continue until "all" of historic Palestine was "liberated."

While some argue that the Lebanese government could not and cannot disarm Hezbollah and assert its sovereign national authority without causing a potential civil war, I ask what are we risking now by allowing Hezbollah to be a party in the Lebanese government with two cabinet members, who have taken it upon themselves to single-handedly destroy so much of the infrastructure and (more importantly) sectarian relations in Lebanon that took so many years to rebuild after the civil war and the withdrawal of Syria. I would also like to the point them and those who argue that the
Fatah party could not use force to quell Hamas' activities, to the story of a ship called the "ALTALENA."
(http://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/.../Altalena.html)

THE ALTALENA was a ship full of arms that the "Irgun" ordered for Israel's War of Independence. The Irgun was (and still is) considered by many to be a terrorist organization, and the newly established Israel Defense Forces (IDF) was called in to take over the weaponry. When the Irgun leadership refused, a shootout broke out, and many were killed. This was an incredible travesty that almost led to a civil war in Israel just days into its establishment, but Prime Minister Ben Gurion succeeded in establishing the Israeli government's IDF as the single military to operate on behalf of
Israel.

And to those that have argued that the Lebanese were in the process of negotiating with Hezbollah to disarm, I say, you are right, there were negotiations, and that is precisely why Hezbollah, along with Iran took it upon itself to start a new war with Israel. The hope was that Israel would once again respond weakly as it had in the past (especially since Israel was preoccupied in Gaza), that the kidnapped IDF soldiers (dead or alive) would eventually be exchanged for Arab prisoners, and Hezbollah would prove once again that it was doing what no Arab government could do: hurt Israel, live
to talk about it, and get results such as the Israeli release of prisoners. But instead Israel finally decided to defend itself and re-assert its deterrent capabilities, critical in a region where countries such as Iran are developing nuclear weapons, saying they will attack Israel first regardless of who hits them, deny the Holocaust and call Israel a cancer that will soon be destroyed. The way to end this conflict, my friends, is to return the three Israeli soldiers, disarm Hezbollah, and deploy the Lebanese Army to the southern border, not by calling on Israel to cease fire.

The third time Israel did not respond and lost its deterrent capability (which helped lead to the situation that exists today) was shortly after Israel's withdrawal to the internationally recognized border, when (much like the most recent kidnappings), Hezbollah militants kidnapped Israeli soldiers. It's not known if the soldiers died of their wounds during the
attack, or died of torture in captivity. Whatever the case, Hezbollah also managed to lure an Israeli businessman (and former IDF colonel) to a Gulf state in what he idiotically hoped was a promising business venture. He ended up being kidnapped and held in captivity for three years in Lebanon, before Israel released over 400 Palestinian and Lebanese prisoners, in return for the bodies of the three of her soldiers and the Israeli civilian.


It should also be noted that after the soldiers were kidnapped and others were killed in the Hezbollah attack, Israel did (yet again) absolutely NOTHING militarily significant about it. No Hezbollah members were killed or injured, and no serious attacks commenced by Israel. Instead Israel chose to go the diplomatic route, which led only to the prisoner release. No Fletcher emails were sent praising Israel at the time (I remember because I was at Fletcher in 2003), that's for sure. Prisoner exchanges sound nice, but not when a sovereign state is dealing with terrorist organizations; then it's extortion, and when you give in once, it encourages terrorist groups to try to do so again. That's the lesson Hamas learned as well, and it's no coincidence that they too kidnapped an Israeli soldier a few weeks ago and launched over 600 rockets in less than a week now against Israel. Keep in mind that this was done only AFTER Israel withdrew from the Gaza Strip
(before that only about 25 had ever been fired), and allowed Hamas to participate in elections for the Palestinian Authority (which by the way, under the Oslo Accords in which the PA was created, it clearly states that a prerequisite of being able to run in the elections is recognition of Israel and a call for an end to violence).

So that's deterrence. Without it, Israel is more and more at risk of these and other types of attacks.

AS MANY ISRAELIS VIEW THEIR GOVERNMENT'S ACTIONS, (almost) every time they try to make peace with their neighbors, it only leads to more violence. Only after Israel signed the Oslo Peace Accords, allowed the Palestinian Authority to be established, and gave them weapons, did suicide bombings against Israelis begin. Only after Israel withdrew from Lebanon was Hezbollah able to amass enough missiles to fire 500 in just one day at innocent civilians. Only once Israel withdrew from the Gaza Strip did Israel start getting attacked by dozens of rockets on a daily basis, and was one of their soldiers kidnapped. And this is true throughout Israeli history.

Alison, your take on David Brooks' article I think goes to show the huge gap between the pro-Israeli and pro-Palestinian camp as it exists today. I sent out that article because I wanted to show the double standard that exists
vis-à-vis Israel and the unfair accusations and treatment it continues to face today by most of the international community. You on the other hand somehow pull out two sentences from the article and interpret that Arafat
should be praised, while bringing up an interview you and I conducted with the Boston Globe in 2004. And for the record, I still think that Israel withdrawing unilaterally from the Gaza Strip was better than Israel staying in the Gaza Strip (though it should have done it differently than it did. See my dissertation once it's completed for more info . And instead of blaming Israel for all the trouble there (though it surely deserves it share), perhaps the Arab world and particularly the Palestinians should look internally, and specifically at Fatah, who was so corrupt and inept that it
was because of them that Hamas was elected to power. And CHIEF on the list of those guilty in Fatah, was Yasser ARAFAT himself, who was never brave enough to take that next step necessary to make peace, because he could not
move on from being a revolutionary in order to become a statesman, as had others such as Anwar Sadat, Menachem Begin and Yitzhak Rabin. And so now we have to sit on our hands and wait many more years and Gd knows how much more blood to reach an agreement that will one day look pretty much the same as what Clinton was able to negotiate out of the two parties in Camp David and later in Taba. (**see quotes below)

REGARDING PALESTINIAN PRISONER status, most Palestinians arrested by Israel are held as detainees, often times without going to trial (much like the laws post-9/11 in the US, Great Britain and France for non-combatants). Many
(I don't know exact numbers) go on trial, especially the bigger name terrorist leaders who are arrested for ordering suicide attacks, such as Marwan Barghouti. Overall though, these prisoners have been found to be members of terrorist organizations, often times involved in terrorist activities against Israel in one way or another. That is not to say I would
not like to see these people properly tried, I'm just trying to answer the question someone raised yesterday regarding Palestinian prisoners' status.

REGARDING PALESTINIAN REFUGEES such as in Syria, while the Palestinian refugees clearly don't have it easy, it may come as a surprise for some of you to learn that the standard of living and education for Palestinian refugees is still better than the vast majority of the rest of the (non-refugee) Arab world. The Palestinian refugees are the longest running
group of refugees in the world because they are the only group of refugees not to be settled by their kinsmen. The creation of UNWRA only helped to prolong this problem, and use these refugees as a propaganda tool against Israel. As Ralph Garroway, Former Director of UNWRA said in August, 1958, “The Arab states do not want to solve the refugee problem. They want to keep it as an open sore, as an affront to the United Nations and as a weapon against Israel. Arab leaders don’t give a damn whether these refugees live or die.” I also urge you all to see the film "FORGOTTEN REFUGEES," about the hundreds of thousands of Jewish refugees from Arab and other Muslim lands who were expelled and/or persecuted until they left, namely during the first half of the twentieth century. Only they were absorbed by Israel. No offense to Syria, but I don't think it should be praised for giving some Palestinians work permits. There are over 100,000 in Syria without citizenship. That might have something to do with the minority Alawite leadership in power, which is authoritarian and uses the refugees as a propaganda tool whenever possible.

REGARDING THE ISRAELI TARGETING OF INFRASTRUCTURE in Lebanon, not to beat a dead horse here, but as I said earlier, Israel is fighting a terrorist organization that uses guerilla and insurgent tactics. They don’t play by the rules, they use civilian areas and infrastructures to their advantage, and they exploit civilian casualties whenever they can. This time, however, they made a mistake. Nasrallah gambled on the Israelis not responding in such an aggressive manner, and thankfully, they have, though I truly regret the loss of civilian lives on either side. And to the people saying Syria and Iran are to blame and they should be punished and attacked, what type of reaction do you think Israel would receive if it went and started a war with Syria and Iran? Lebanon is today an independent state and should take control and responsibility for its actions, much like in the case of the Altalena. No country in the world would stand by

This leads to the final point, REGARDING PATRICK'S IDEA FOR A WEBSITE CALLING ON BOTH SIDES TO OBSERVE A CEASEFIRE. While I think Patrick and many others' hearts are in the right place, I don’t think that simply a general call for a ceasefire for a week or longer is in anyone's benefit, except for Hezbollah. A ceasefire would allow Hezbollah to re-arm and re-outfit its defenses and propaganda, would not return the missing Israeli soldiers, would not lead to any type of peace agreement between Lebanon and Israel, and would not provide a great enough amount of pressure on Hezbollah to disarm, withdraw from the southern Lebanese border, and return the kidnapped Israeli soldiers. Only when that happens, or until the Israeli government (which right now has the support of all but some members of the Arab and far-left parties in Israel) that I support agrees it is time for a ceasefire, will I support one. To give in before these grievances are dealt with may save some innocent civilians now, but cost more civilian lives in the future when Hezbollah decides to attack Israel again. It is the same reason Israel is refusing to negotiate with Hamas over the kidnapped Israeli
soldier Corporal Gilad Shalit. It knows that every time it has negotiated with terrorists, it has only led to more kidnappings of Israelis. It is time for the world to finally take the initiative and use all the diplomatic and if necessary military pressure to stand united against Hezbollah, Hamas, and even more so Syria and Iran (Iran being the main player here whose power is growing) and say enough is enough.

Thanks for listening. Let's hope things quiet down sooner rather later, and
all our loved ones stay safe.

- Josh

jinxy

Like anyones going to read all of that but buk

R-MAK

And Minister Dan haha

Paul99EX

yeah, its easy to copy and paste that on here, but no ones gonna read all that cept who they said, buk, minister and maybe stealth and johnny

jinxy

steve wont read it, but he'll have an opinion about it :P

90dx

Well i just actually read the whole thing and here are the cliffnotes:

-Israel has done nothing but show restraint time and time again as well as rarely responding when savagely attacked
-Israel has done nothing but give and give to the Muslims/Arabs
-Its all the Arabs/Muslims fault
-Israel should not show restraint now as it would benefit Hezbollah allowing them to re arm and prepare
-Dont forget about the Holocaust!!!!!

Well I think we may finally see this dispute settled once and for all if it doesnt stop quick as it is rolling towards a Muslim-Jew rumble in the desert and you know there is lots of support for the Muslims via wealthy oil countries in the area.

zex_cool

W W l l l

AgentMurdoc

thanks for reading it. cause the cliff notes are better. I read the first paragraph, then skimmed the rest of it to see how long it was, well I quiteded :P