Volkswagen AG will probably become the world's biggest carmaker this year, vaulting past Toyota Motor Corp. and General Motors Co. on gains in emerging markets.

VW Group's sales, third among carmakers in 2010, will probably rise 13 percent to 8.1 million vehicles this year, based on the average of three analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

GM sales will gain about 8 percent to 7.55 million, while Toyota will drop 9 percent to 7.27 million, according to the survey.

Volkswagen sales in China may rise almost 20 percent this year and more than double in India, according to estimates at researcher J.D. Power & Associates.

That's a contrast to Toyota, which is suspending plants in Southeast Asia because of floods in Thailand, months after an earthquake crippled production in Japan.

"Emerging markets are at a stage of car-adoption by consumers and there is still a large space for sales to grow. said Jenny Gu, Shanghai-based senior markets analyst for J.D. Power. ''VW realized this and put a lot of effort on emerging markets.''

Estimates at J.D. Power, IHS Automotive and PwC Autofacts were used to calculate the average projections.

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